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Real Estate Analysis

A Modest Start for 1999

by Laurel S. McQueen

Leasing across the Tampa Bay business park market was mixed moving into 1999, with most of the smaller counties having reasonably good quarters while the performance in Hillsborough and Pinellas was somewhat flat.

A new distribution center for Beall's at Manasota Industrial Park led the market, boosting Manatee's net quarterly absorption. Even without this facility, Manatee County had an excellent quarter, with more than 90,000 sf absorbed. The county's vacancy rate dropped nearly two points. Palmetto Corporate Complex accounts for 75 percent of Manatee's vacant space. Factoring out this location, the county's vacancy rate drops to 2.3 percent.

In Pasco County net first quarter absorption was a modest 25,200 sf. This is in line with Pasco's average over the past five years of 28,200 sf per quarter, but falls short of the two-year average of 45,000 sf per quarter. Pasco's vacancy rate was nudged up .9 percentage point this quarter with the completion of a 10,800-sf speculative building at One Pasco Center. Also completed this quarter was build-to-suit space for American Building Materials and Watra Church Goods.

All remaining vacant space was absorbed at Hernando County's three business parks during first quarter. A 10,800-sf speculative building is under construction at the Airport Industrial Park. Polk County's first quarter results were much more modest. The quarter's net absorption of 25,200 sf was only one-fifth of the five-year quarterly average of 119,850 sf. Annual absorption dropped 29 percent.

First quarter net absorption was rather bleak for Sarasota County, following on the heels of a net occupancy loss last quarter. Annual absorption dropped 27 percent. The county's five-year quarterly absorption average is 63,270 sf.

Hillsborough County's net quarterly absorption was off 70 percent from last quarter, but was right in line with the county's average over the past five years of 272,735 sf per quarter. The county's vacancy rate dipped half a point, while annual absorption was almost unchanged from last quarter. The market west of I-275 had a good first quarter, with net quarterly absorption more than doubling the sub-market's five-year average of 65,450 sf per quarter. Three business parks reported absorption of 30,000 sf or more, and annual absorption moved up 38 percent. East of I-275, net quarterly absorption was about two-fifths of the sub-market's five-year quarterly average of 210,230 sf. Annual absorption dipped slightly. Construction was completed during the quarter on 96,000 sf of speculative space at Hampton Oaks.

Pinellas County's net quarterly absorption was an improvement over last quarter, but was about 60 percent of the county's five-year quarterly average of 154,250 sf. Annual absorption slipped 9 percent. Construction was completed during the quarter on 176,400 sf of speculative space, one-third of which was pre-leased. The Pinellas Gateway has now had four quarters of net occupancy losses totaling 225,620 sf. With the completion of 74,400 sf of speculative space, plus the quarter's net occupancy loss, the vacancy rate moved up 1.2 percentage points.

Across the region 2.1 million square feet of space is under construction, 83 percent of it speculative. Pinellas County accounts for just over half of this construction boom, and only 6 percent of the space under construction in Pinellas is pre-leased or build-to-suit.

NOTE: The Maddux Report has eliminated locator maps for individual counties for the Business Park Survey. Instead, each business park has been assigned a grid location, which can be matched to the Focus Map on page 70. Find where the letter across the top intersects with the number at the left edge of the map for the approximate location of the park. Each square on the grid equals about 16 square miles.)

For more complete information on the survey, call the Maddux Report's Research Department at 727/321-3225.