It's a Down Market
by Laurel S. McQueen

Both data for the year's end and the move into 2001 showed regional retail leasing falling off in the Tampa Bay area. Pinellas, Manatee and Pasco counties recorded significant occupancy losses over the past year, while Sarasota County just barely squeaked into the plus column. Only Hillsborough County bucked the area trend.

Hillsborough County benefitted from the completion of three new centers plus an addition at West Shore Plaza. This, combined with the opening of several new centers in the last reporting period, gave the county its best full year of leasing in over ten years when a regional mall was not included in the figures. The county's vacancy rate dipped 0.3 percentage points. Weighted average rents jumped up $.86 per sf.

The county's small southwest submarket was this period's bright spot. The new specialty retail/entertainment center, Shops at Channelside, opened at year-end. Further absorption can be expected as this center fills up in the coming months. At West Shore Plaza, 140,000 sf of new space was completed, adding an AMC cinema with stadium seating, a new food court and several new shops. The existing empty space at Channelside pushed the submarket's vacancy rate up 4 percent.

Hillsborough's southeast and northwest submarkets also showed good absorption with the opening of Shops at Fishhawk and West Park Village/Westchase, respectively. The vacancy rates for both submarkets declined slightly.

Across the bay in Pinellas County only the southern submarket recorded net positive absorption. That can squarely be attributed to the opening of the BayWalk retail/entertainment complex in downtown St. Petersburg. The northern and mid-county submarkets continued the trend of net occupancy losses reported here in November. Overall, the county's net occupancy loss for the year grew by 20 percent.

Pinellas County's vacancy rate ticked up just 0.1 point. Meanwhile, the weighted average rent for all centers moved up $.52 per sf.

In Pasco County, the new River Ridge Town Center opened 70 percent pre-leased. But significant move-outs at three other centers left the county well into a net occupancy loss. The vacancy rate rose 2.2 points, giving Pasco the dubious distinction of having the region's highest retail vacancy rate. The weighted average rent nudged up just $.06 per sf.

Manatee County's retail market also kept the downward trend reported in November. However, construction on two new centers that are expected to open in April bodes well for next period. The vacancy rate slipped up 0.4 point, while the weighted average rent notched up $.26 per sf.

Sarasota County's net occupancy loss for the period caused annual absorption to drop 66 percent. The county's vacancy rate ticked up just 0.1 point. The market continues to have the region's highest weighted average rents, which moved up $.22 per sf.

The demise of Montgomery Ward & Co. led to the closing of six stores across the region. But the dissolution of the properties (both owned and leased) has not been settled. It is expected that over a million sf of space will be vacated.

Across the region a number of anchor spaces are empty, but remain under lease. This space is not reflected in the counties' regular vacancy rates. The figures in parentheses below indicate what each county's vacancy rate would be if this vacant anchor space were accounted for.

Hillsborough 151,360 (7.3%)
Pinellas 232,600 (10.6%)
Manatee 62,100 (9.7%)
Sarasota 50,000 (6.9%)
Pasco 14,000 (10.9%)

NOTE: Shopping centers that have been fully leased for two or more periods do not appear in the survey charts. All shopping centers continue to be updated in the database each half-year. For a complete survey call the Maddux Report Research Department at 727/321-3225.